The number of connected devices by 2020 will be 20 billion? Or, will it be 100 billion as some forecast? About the spending, IDC is predicting $1.7 trillion by 2020 while McKinsey pegs the number at $11.1 trillion by 2025.
This report makes an estimate based on two established ICT industry principles, Moore’s law and Metcalfe’s law.
By introducing Geoffey Moore’s chasm theory, and Jeremy Rifkin’s zero marginal cost model, we dig into IoT’s challenges and opportunities, and its social and economic potential.
Then, we analyze the hypothesis in quantitative terms. When numbers are applied to the hypothesis we gain insights into why the IoT estimates are so lofty, and how the theorems interact to enable a revolution in the way we go about our daily activities in the near future.
Finally, we explain the business rationale for a standards-based horizontal IoT approach. Deploying a common network and platform infrastructure, on which a broad variety of devices and applications share platform functions and data, will fuel the exponential growth of the Internet of Things.
Based upon this extrapolation, we conclude that by 2020 IoT will have a value, based on the number of connections, that is 7.5 times that of the Internet in 2020 and about 36 times the value of today’s Internet, assuming the node values are equal.
You can see the full report here.
Do you agree?