The Urgent Hunt for Asteroids: Safeguarding Humanity's Future

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The Urgent Hunt for Asteroids: Safeguarding Humanity's Future

Gaurav Wadekar

@gauravwadekar

August 30, 2024

Miscellaneous

When thinking about the threats facing humanity, we often consider challenges like climate change, pandemics, or geopolitical conflicts. However, one catastrophic event that could end life on Earth as we know it is a large asteroid impact. Unlike other existential risks, this is a danger we can actively mitigate by identifying and diverting these celestial threats.

The Legacy of Extinction

History has shown us the devastating potential of asteroid impacts. The dinosaurs, once the dominant species on Earth, were wiped out by a massive asteroid that slammed into our planet. If we don’t want to meet the same fate, we need to take proactive steps to protect ourselves. As a popular T-shirt among space enthusiasts puts it, "Asteroids are nature’s way of saying ‘How’s that space programme coming along?’"

Tracking the Threats

To ensure our survival, we must find and monitor all potential "killer asteroids." The Spaceguard survey was a significant first step in this direction. Thanks to Spaceguard, we have already identified 90 percent of the dinosaur-killer-sized asteroids in our vicinity. The good news is that none of these pose any threat to Earth for at least the next century.

However, the job is far from done. There are still about 100 extinction-event-sized asteroids out there that we haven’t yet located. Additionally, there are numerous smaller, yet still deadly, city-killer asteroids that are much less surveyed.

The Next Phase in Asteroid Detection

Recognizing the gaps in our asteroid tracking efforts, new initiatives are underway to ensure that all potential threats are identified and monitored. Two major surveys are set to begin in the coming years, both with the goal of enhancing our asteroid detection capabilities.

The first is the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time. Starting in 2023, this observatory in Chile will scan the entire sky every few nights, searching for any new objects that might pose a threat. However, the mission is facing complications due to the increasing number of satellites being launched into space, especially by companies like SpaceX. Hopefully, a solution will be found to ensure these satellites don’t interfere with the observatory’s vital work.

The second initiative is NASA's Near-Earth Object Surveillance Mission, developed by a team led by Amy Mainzer at the University of Arizona, Tucson. Unlike the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, which uses visible light, this mission will focus on detecting asteroids using infrared light – the heat emitted by these objects. Many asteroids are pitch black, making them difficult to detect using visible light. By tracking their infrared emissions, this mission aims to find these elusive threats before they find us. The mission will begin around 2025 and continue for five years, with the team’s tagline being "Finding Asteroids Before They Find Us."

Playing It Safe

With these advanced surveys and technologies, humanity is taking crucial steps to safeguard its future. While the idea of a large asteroid impact may seem like science fiction, it’s a real and present danger. By identifying and diverting potential threats, we can ensure that Earth remains a safe and thriving home for generations to come.

In the end, while we cannot eliminate all risks to humanity, we have the power to prevent one of the most catastrophic events imaginable. And that’s a mission worth investing in.

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Gaurav Wadekar