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Part 1: Bracing for a Quantum leap: Are bold commitments from governments worldwide enough?
Part 1: Bracing for a Quantum leap: Are bold commitments from governments worldwide enough?

November 23, 2024

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As India nears its completion of first small-scale quantum computer at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, as a part of the India’s National Quantum Mission which aims to develop a 24-qubit computer in three years and a 100-qubit system in the next five years, the country is set to emerge as a global frontrunner in quantum technology. In this context, it’s crucial to visualize how the role of different stakeholders in the ecosystem is shaping, especially the start-ups. Indian tech start-ups are at the helm of things to ensure India is able to compete amidst the global developments in quantum and is able to craft its own space.

 

The race for “Quantum Supremacy”

United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. As countries race to invest more and more to achieve quantum supremacy, the technology is achieving a strategic importance shaping the future of not just computing, but jobs, national security, and economic growth. In this context, the spotlight is on the global tech start-up community given a strong flow of public funding announced by governments globally. The private and corporate funding for Quantum Technology start-ups has slowed from the previous years. Amidst the focus on AI, the VC deal volumes, and new start-ups being created in Quantum Technology have taken a slump in 2023. However, the public funding has seen a major boost, amounting to a total of $42 billion investment announced over the next few years, a jump of over 26% YoY. (McKinsey)

 

In 2023, global public investment amounting to $10 billion was see in quantum technology.

The quantum technology can be broken down into four key domains:

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Below is a quick snapshot of key initiatives and investments in quantum technology globally, and perceived strengths of each country:

Country

Govt. backed initiatives

Govt. budget/ investment and key highlight

Key developments leading to strengths for countries

China

In the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016), China launched QUESS (Quantum Experiments at Space Scale) project aimed at securing breakthroughs in quantum communications and computing by 2030.

 

Planning to launch new quantum satellites into low Earth orbit by 2025.

Highest total investment of ~15 billion in quantum technology globally with a focus on AI, security, and defence.

Quantum Communication

 

Built the world's first long-distance quantum-secured communication route, Beijing-Shanghai Backbone Network (BSBN), which is the longest quantum key distribution (QKD) network in the world and stretches over 1,200 miles using fibre-optic cables.

Germany

In 2018, the German Federal Government announced a Framework Programme to bring quantum technologies to market.

 

Positioning itself as a frontrunner in Europe with a goal of developing a universal quantum computer by 2026, with 100 qubits capability, and reach 500 qubits in the near term.

In 2023, Germany announced $3.3 billion action plan for quantum technologies to develop a universal quantum computer by 2026.

 

 

Photonic Quantum Computing

 

Developed the Europe’s largest sampling-based quantum computer, PaQS (Paderborn Quantum Sampler) with a funding of around 50 million euros, and leverages expertise of 13 science and industry partners.

UK

In 2023, UK outlined National Quantum Strategy, with a 10-year plan of investment in quantum technology, where it committed to publishing long-term quantum missions with key objectives below:

By 2035, there will be accessible, UK-based quantum computers capable of running 1 trillion operations

 

By 2035, the UK will have deployed the world’s most advanced quantum network at scale

In 2023, UK announced a plan to double current public investment with a 10-year goal to invest over $3 billion in quantum computing. It claims to be only the second to the US in terms of the number of quantum start-ups, and the scale of private investment into the technology.

 

With the new national quantum laboratory coming into existence, UK is targeting energy, and healthcare sectors, amongst others.

Quantum Communication

 

UK is building the foundation of a future ‘Quantum Internet’ that will have the ability to pool the computing power of multiple quantum computers from across the globe, leveraging the principles of large-scale quantum networks that are capable of distributing quantum entanglement.

US

In 2018, launched its National Quantum Initiative (NQI), which provides $1.2 billion over five years for quantum technology development. The initiatives was later enacted as a law to accelerate US leadership in Quantum Information Science (QIS).

 

 

 

 

With the NQI expired in 2023, National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act was passed that featured updates focused on moving beyond fundamental research to developing a workforce fluent in QIS and building a bridge toward commercialization.

Quantum Computing

 

PsiQuantum, an American quantum computing company based in Palo Alto, is adding to the strength of US by building a ‘useful’ quantum computer or a photonic quantum computer with high computing capability of 1,000,000 qubits with error correction   

India

In 2023, India approved the National Quantum Mission aiming to seed, nurture and scale up scientific and industrial R&D and create an ecosystem in Quantum Technology with a mission to develop intermediate-scale quantum computers with 50-1000 physical qubits in 8 years.

In 2023, a total outlay of Rs.6003.65 crore from 2023-2024 to 2030-2031 was approved, aiming to seed, nurture and scale up scientific and industrial R&D and create a vibrant and innovative ecosystem in quantum technology.

Quantum Communication

 

India is aiming to have a country-wide free space quantum key  distribution  (QKD) network by using a satellite as a trusted node as well as a fibre-based QKD network, and ultimately leading the global quantum internet narrative.

 Fig. 1 – Global government organizations increasing investments in Quantum Technology. List is not exhaustive.

 

Conclusion:

While the private investment in quantum technology sees a decline worldwide amidst tech investments directed towards AI, the public investment into the technology remains a pivotal focus in charting the next path towards quantum supremacy. India, having launched its National Quantum Mission is progressing fast to fill the gap that exists with the western counterparts, for instance in terms of patents, and research publication. However, with a vibrant tech start-up ecosystem focused on quantum technology, India can change the game shifting the narrative from research and development to commercialization, and enterprise-grade quantum computing. In this context, a key priority for both the private sector and government globally should be to take a step back, and reassess how the technology is shaping up, and where it will pivot in the next 3-5 years and clearly understand what the future holds for the technology in terms of technological breakthroughs, global developments, solutioning, and commercialization.

Below are the key themes in Quantum set to disrupt the global technological landscape that will be covered in part 2 of this blog series.

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